Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.722924 4.080308 4.499647 5.041192 5.744409 6.664756 8.041242
2024-12-22 3.205190 3.620303 4.143750 4.886837 5.988537 7.736624 11.348664
2024-12-29 2.998365 3.465021 4.087850 5.046886 6.663921 9.882895 21.693254
2025-01-05 2.746823 3.205534 3.833201 4.836857 6.643393 10.764380 38.418784
2025-01-12 2.547649 2.991205 3.607712 4.617903 6.518915 11.328480 99.216387
2025-01-19 2.414476 2.853360 3.473803 4.518382 6.588167 12.575023 NaN
2025-01-26 2.363390 2.823522 3.492962 4.674950 7.255216 17.411897 NaN
2025-02-02 2.341044 2.830898 3.567213 4.943157 8.356973 33.633711 NaN
2025-02-09 2.274974 2.768158 3.522199 4.975382 8.867217 69.906571 NaN
2025-02-16 2.220892 2.718882 3.493230 5.033268 9.519344 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.129671 2.608091 3.352710 4.836272 9.179387 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.081206 2.559714 3.313467 4.850189 9.656826 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.025906 2.500599 3.255886 4.826245 10.041093 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.956928 2.417337 3.151509 4.684610 9.846049 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.935775 2.406812 3.171964 4.830488 11.162333 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.869357 2.322240 3.056100 4.638834 10.574652 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.805268 2.239380 2.939924 4.438162 9.895603 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.760130 2.184911 2.871761 4.346653 9.794287 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.750213 2.185276 2.900598 4.490532 11.158394 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.752238 2.204461 2.964575 4.735931 13.845757 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.727941 2.180064 2.946363 4.765325 15.019344 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.707539 2.161124 2.937094 4.818076 16.723642 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.663150 2.101577 2.848072 4.638298 15.300590 NaN NaN